As disclosed in its annual financial statements for FY13, management of Descon Oxychem (DOL) has taken steps that
will free up some serious cash flow for the next two years. In a nutshell, the
company has obtained a grace period of two years for all its debt,
including both the bank as well as subordinated debt. Moreover, the
subordinated loan will now accrue interest for two years meaning that no
finance costs will need to be paid for it.
All this means that the company will save Rs. 300 million each
year for the next two years which comes to around Rs. 3 per share per year. Not
bad given the stock is currently trading at Rs. 5.5.
While there would be no significant impact on earnings, improved
cash flows could reduce short term borrowings and save finance costs. Possibility
of dividends can also not be ruled out.
Now why did the management do this? The company is in excellent financial shape
especially as per the June quarter result. Peroxide prices are at an all time high and
will stay high for the September quarter implying that the quarter result will be
good.
Maybe they just wanted to be safe given the dip in peroxide
prices experienced two years ago.
Fair values are fair values and people rarely take them seriously.
However, if they have anything worth, the whole debt restructuring exercise has
had a fantastic impact on company valuation. The cumulative shifting of Rs. 600
million in free cash flows two years forward has increased the fair value of
the company to Rs. 15, giving us an upside of almost 200% given current levels.
Given the intermediate for the stock appears to be good as
per business recorder, peroxide prices are still holding, which implies a good
result for September quarter.
So Descon Oxychem. Lao Maal!
Descon oxychem performed very poorly in September quarter against your expectations!!!!
ReplyDeleteThank you for the comment. There are thousands of elements impacting a stock price. There can be many for Descon too. and my forecasts are for result season which is not out yet for September. Not sure about teh date but its somewhere around teh 30th of this month. Thanks. The good result expectation still stands due to high margins.
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